Update on 2011 TdF trip (Yes, a post not about doping!)

Everything appears to be in place; Kevin (my son, not the pilot) leave on July 14th and fly SFO-IAD (Dulles Airport in DC)-LYS (Lyon, France), then take a train to Grenoble, where we stay at a hotel very close to the train station. That will be our base for a couple days of riding in the Grenoble Vercors region, before heading to our base in the Alps, a small village near the foot of the Galibier, offering access to all of the mountain stages.

Coming home will be a bit hectic; we leave Grenoble early Sunday morning for Paris, where we’ll drop our luggage off (somewhere?), see the final stage and later that evening take the train to Brussels, from which we’ll leave for home the next morning. A bit convoluted on the return due to crazy air fares at the time I bought the tickets; if I were to book right now, I would have flown into and out of Paris since it’s suddenly become (relatively) reasonable. It will be strange, flying to Europe and missing out entirely on CDG, the infamous Paris airport which seems to have been designed by Escher, but we’ll manage. 

Bike-wise we’ll be using our BikeFriday Pocket Rockets, which proved very capable last year in the Pyrenees, and far easier to get through airports and onto trains, since they pack into airline-legal suitcases. –Mike–

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How believable are Floyd, Tyler, and even Lance?

The quote below is from an ESPN interview with Floyd Landis, shortly after his confessions/revelations about doping, and my response, below, comes from a cycling newsgroup, rec.bicycles.racing

> Floyd: Performance-enhancing drugs don’t make as big a difference as
> most people would like to think they do. Nevertheless, I used them to
> do what I was able to do, so I guess it really doesn’t matter. At the
> time, it was part of the game, and like I say, I don’t regret it at
> all.

Floyd says “it really doesn’t matter” to a lot of things we have questions about. Maybe that’s the point. Floyd, today as yesterday, cares only about what matters to himself. Everything remains situational and personal. There is no bigger picture to these guys, whether it’s Floyd or Tyler or Lance. Even, or perhaps especially so, after their “confessions.” Whomever you had cause to believe before, go on believing. Whomever you did not, there is not reason (yet) to change that view.

We continue our search for the truly repentant, or even simply someone who is at the center of things and has all the “dope” on what went on, including solid forensic evidence.

In the meantime, everybody, including myself, has 3rd-party evidence, actually just stuff people said about what was going on to someone else, that doping went on. In my case it was somebody in a position to know who told me in 2001 that, when Tyler was brought on, long before Lance “reached out” to him (as claimed in the 60 minutes piece), he was the guy who could bring down the house. I had a conversation last week with someone who knows a former member of USPS who thinks this is all crazy because of course it went on and why the fuss? But no forensic evidence, nothing tying him into something that was an important part of his life for some time. One is left wondering how many of these people, in a perverse way, want to maintain their connection to “something bigger than themselves” by trying to keep themselves connected to it with embellished stories. Certainly Floyd has done so.

The “truth” is not enough, and perhaps not even obvious, to these guys. Living with their lies for so long, creating the world in which they wish to be viewed, a perverse ethical construct that allows them to rationalize their decisions, robs them of clear vision. It would likely
take a lobotomy to get past the deviant personality traits that have become such a necessary part of their lives over the years.

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The 2002 Tour de Suisse “positive” dope test in context

[Preamble- Let's get to the truth. Let's figure out who's credible and who may not be. If Lance Armstrong is the biggest fraud in sports history, let the case be made so solidly that all the PR spin in the world can't dig him out. But let's not support shoddy journalism that's based on delivering a story that people want to read and gets sloppy with the details. You could be the biggest Lance fan, or the biggest Lance hater. You could believe that Greg LeMond was the last non-doping winner of the Tour de France. I'm fine with any of that. But emotionally bonding to one view or the other and refusing to look at each piece of information critically, choosing instead of believe something because it fits in with something else they already believe in.

What I've written below shows how the media has hyped up the Tour de Suisse "positive" test from 2002 and what Tyler said about it, without even the slightest fact checking.  --Mike--]

Good reading here- So here’s what we know-

#1: There was never a “positive” test to cover up in the first place. It was a “suspicious” test with a reading of between 70-80% (percent of what I’m not sure). To be “positive” it would have had to have been 85%. At that time, the EPO testing was not solid enough to rule out natural means of producing a positive result, thus the high threshold.

#2: There was no “special” meeting, according to Saugy, the person involved who now happens to be the head of the lab in Lausanne. “And it also wasn’t about discussing a particular result or to cover up anything. I explained how the EPO test worked and why there were suspect samples as well as positive ones. This information was part of a lecture that I had been giving in various locations.”

Saugy apparently had many meetings with many teams/riders letting people know what the process was, how the testing worked, etc. Yes, we can ascribe evil motivations to that, but seriously, if your career was on the line based upon some new test, wouldn’t you want to know something about it, especially since there would be some concern regarding false positives? Within this context, it is entirely reasonable that Lance was not concerned about the tests, whether he was doping or not. He had no reason to be concerned. He had a suspicious test that was below the level of a positive, and the process had been explained not just to Lance but other people as well.

It’s entirely possible that Lance was in fact doping at the time, but the test wasn’t conclusive enough to be considered positive. It was still within a range that could have come from someone innocent. Lance, or anybody else in that same situation, clean or not, had nothing to worry about.

Of course, the 60 minutes interview put huge weight on Tyler’s inference that Lance made a positive test go away, and his lack of concern about it showed just how powerful he had become. If you accept that Saugy is telling the truth, you come away not with the idea that Tyler is lying, but that he completely misunderstood. He made assumptions that were reasonable within his own framework, but that’s all. Assumptions that turn out to be false.

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Tyler comes out of the closet on EPO, says Lance, “everybody” took EPO

So Sunday we got to watch Tyler Hamilton in Act II of the supposedly-repentent cycling sinner’s club, telling us that he, like Floyd, now sees the light and wants to set the story straight, and part of that story is to tell the world that Lance Armstrong cheated his way to his Tour de France victories.

This would all be so much more believable if Tyler and Floyd weren’t circling the drain, after years of professing their innocence despite failing doping controls (in Tyler’s case, twice, although he did admit to the latter event). This would all be so much more believable if there wasn’t lots of $$$ involved… the huge number of $$$ each of these former athletes lost when they were caught and spiraled downward, the huge number of $$$ to potentially gain from book contracts and media access fees.

In the Tyler Hamilton 60 minutes interview, you couldn’t escape a feeling that he was making some of it up as he went along, with long pauses and lots of blinking. To be fair, he was that way with easy questions too, but it causes me to wonder if the guy cannot distinguish between the fantasy world he lived in for years and the real world.

If there’s a real bombshell that’s going to bring down Lance, it’s the Tour de Suisse angle, the supposedly-failed EPO test that was covered up by the UCI. That would be huge, if there’s credible evidence it happened. But there were issues with that as well, as we were shown evidence of a “suspicious” test result, not failed. And the money trail, the $125,000 donation to encourage the UCI to cover things up? You’ve got to be kidding; that might be a down payment but certainly doesn’t come close to what it would (or should?) take to buy off something like that.

And finally, there was the “white lunchbag” story. Tyler telling us how he lost his virginity to EPO via one of those “white lunchbags” the team doctors and trainers assigned to their best athletes, with EPO and/or HGH inside. This was a big thing for Tyler, a recognition that he’d arrived. And then later in the broadcast he talks about “reaching out” to Lance for… EPO. In a way that made it sound like Lance really helped him out; as if if hadn’t already gotten onto the EPO train previously. But he had. The “white lunchbag”, remember?

Personally, I don’t think it’s possible to compete at the highest levels in cycling, against people who are doping, without assistance. That’s the polite way of saying it. Assistance. We all need help from time to time, right? So we’ll make doping no more evil than someone down on their luck taking food stamps or a tax credit. But at some level it’s not. What is that level? Back in the day, we had a clear distinction between the supposed purity of college sports vs the evil commercialism of the professional world. I think I bought into that; I never assumed that all was clean & nice on the professional side, and maybe that’s why doping in cycling hasn’t bothered me as much as it should. But that’s not an argument with legs to stand on, because with the professionals in football, baseball, soccer, cycling etc leading the way, the amateurs have been encouraged to step up their game. Doping is clearly rampant in amateur sports, even at the high school level.

If there had been a distinction between professional and amateur sports and any sort of purity or honest competition, I think it was lost when the Olympics allowed professionals to compete. That, for me, was probably the “Dave Stoller” moment. “Everybody cheats. I just didn’t know.”  –Mike–

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Tour de France trip planning nearly done

It’s not so easy maintaining multiple blogs; obviously, most of my effort goes into the successor to the long-running “almost daily diary.” For that blog, I pay a few $$$ to engage high-quality spam filters (which saves a lot of time), and make sure it gets updated several times/week. So the question becomes, should this blog exist?

It does have one cool thing going for it- the Twitter feeds from the various cycling personalities at the bottom of this page. For that alone this will remain, and I’ll probably post by TdF trip reports here as well (although likely duplicated in the main blog).

Meantime, the relevant details for this year’s trip are-

Fly to Lyon on July 14th, arriving Friday July 15th (yes, we’ll miss Bastille Day). Take the train to Grenoble where we’ll spend the first couple of nights, and explore the Vercors roads (truly specatcular cliff-hugging roads carved straight into the rock) before heading on to spend 6 nights in a hotel near LaGrave, an ideal location for most of the Alps stages. The morning of the time trial we move back to Grenoble again, then the next morning take a train into Paris for the finale, and late that night take another train into Brussels, from which we leave the next morning.

Lots more riding this time than prior years; the plan is to spend a lot less time on logistics and a lot more time on the road! Bike Fridays again (like last year).  –Mike–

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Race Radio- how has it really affected the action?

Thanks to Eric for sending me this link on race radio at the Tour de France. Not what you would expect to see… somebody actually did study the difference between races with & without race radio. And with a different outcome than many would think.

I’m not certain 1991-1996 vs 2001-2005 TdF stages are otherwise-equal; you’re comparing pre-Lance to Lance days, and regardless of what you think of Lance himself, Bruyneel brought a different style of racing to the Peloton, that of everyone dying for the King. At least it’s my perception, possibly wrong, that pre-Lance it was more likely your GC guy didn’t have the entire team at his disposal, but rather you’d have your separate sprinters & breakaway guys… something not possible with a classic Lance/Bruyneel team.

Read & discuss. Interested to hear what others think.

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Contador disqualified from 2010 TdF, banned from 2011, plus sad reminder of teams gone

And so it goes. I figured they’d give Contador a token 4 month suspension and take away his 2010 Tour de France victory, but I think he miscalculated and pushed his “innocence” too far. My guess is that he could have cut a deal early on, but went for broke. Maybe he could have skated free if not for the plasticizers they found in his blood (plasticizers being something you pick up from a blood bag during a transfusion, and there are no longer any legally-permissible reasons for transfusions short of one supervised by a doctor for medical conditions that must be documented and demonstrated to be extremely serious).

While looking through links on the New York Times Contador article, I came across  their Tour de France page here.

What’s sad is to go through the links for the various teams (found well down the page, on the right-hand side), many of which are gone. For example-

At least they have a page saying good-bye. Many others simply go 404.
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TdF route presentation tomorrow

Tomorrow’s the day the TdF announces the mountains & cities it will visit next July. Normally they’d have the past winners of the yellow (overall leader) and green (best sprinter) jerseys but not this time, as both are subjects of ongoing doping investigations. It’s been quite some time since doping allegations haven’t been a major part of media coverage of the event.

But regarding the route, it will be counter-clockwise this year, hitting the Pyrenees first and saving the toughest climbs in the Alpes for the finish. The Galibier, Chamrousse and yes, the Alpe d’Huez all get crammed into the last week, at least according to usually-reliable sources.

And yes, plans are for Kevin (my son) and I to return, again, with our BikeFriday folding travel bikes, and bring you close-to-live coverage. In fact, with this new wordpress blog format, I can update from almost anywhere using just my iPhone!

This assumes of course that Kevin’s kidney issues will finally be a thing of the past by then. Right now I’m writing this from the surgery waiting room at Kaiser in Santa Clara, where he’s undergoing a 4 hour robotic surgery procedure that will hopefully put his severe abdominal pains behind him. Well, they’re sort of behind him now (lower back), so I guess what we need is for it to become an out-of-body experience. :-)

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Best source for 2011 TdF route info ahead of the official presentation

For those wanting to know how I decided to make appropriate reservations for seeing the decisive stages in the Alps for the 2011 Tour de France, well yes, I did a whole lot of internet searching (like everybody else) but eventually came across this site that seems to likely have it down best.

If you’d like to try and do the TdF thing in the Alps on your own, it could be pretty tough to find a place to stay right now. Just about everything booked up 10 days ago when a few more rumors firmed up, specifically regarding the likely stage finish on the Alpe d’Huez on the last Friday and the individual time trial up Chamrousse on Saturday. There will be plenty of opportunties to book with tour companies though, including Trek Travel. Another exciting option would be to ride the “citizen’s race” known as the Etap du Tour. This is held each year on the exact routing of what would be considered the “queen” or most-pivotal stage of the TdF, and this year, it is rumored to be the stage that finishes at the top of the Alpe d’Huez, and will take place on Sunday, July 17th.

After seeing the TdF in person many times, I’d have to say my preference runs to the Pyrenees, but I’ve always thought it most interesting to watch the final week, when the winner is determined. This year, that means the Alps, while for 2010 it was the Pyrenees.

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I predict Contador gets 3 month suspension and loses TdF win

I’ll stick my neck out and say Contador’s going down, but in a carefully-managed & orchestrated fashion that allows cycling to not lose further (or perhaps excessive) credibility.

Essentially a plea bargain in which the plasticizer evidence is ignored and they let him off with just 3 months saying that the amounts were so low they cannot be certain of their source, and the lack of establishing a legal limit of clenbuterol did not reflect the realities of a world in which it’s made its way into the food chain. A level will be set, probably only slightly above where AC tested, essentially legitimizing one more aspect of doping up to a certain amount.

AC loses the 2010 TdF title but is able to come back for 2011 and fight again. The three month suspension will have no effect on anything but his TdF win.
And in the meantime, everyone’s scrambling for new ways to dope, knowing that transfusions appear to have some serious issues. Maybe there will suddenly be a whole lot of medically-required rehydration IVs to explain plasticizers in the blood?

That’s my prediction. What say the tribal council?

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